Building on the results of the flood risk analysis of the network, we were hired to describe how the already identified flood risks may impact the technical feasibility, the commercial feasibility and bankability of the BRT PPP. Understanding that the consequences of floods are expressed not only in the form of physical damage to the transportation infrastructure itself but also in the form of business disruption that can occur either due to loss of operability (i.e., inundation of the road network) or due to loss of accessibility (i.e., flooding obstructing potential riders from reaching the BRT), our study proposed a coherent methodology for estimating flood-related losses on an annual basis. This required a consistent definition of disruptive events, derivation of impact maps (presenting the geographical distribution of disruption time across the MMA) and a loss of ridership calculation that accounts for the spatial non-uniformity of the travels. The study highlighted elements/factors/conditions that may critically impact the performance of the investment, as in particular the private sector returns, the risk allocation, the Government VfM and the Government subsidy level and proposed potential remedies to by further considered by the technical/economic advisors.

Resilience Investments

Road Transportation