Probable Maximum Loss of an industrial plant in case of an earthquake

Our team was appointed by Mytilineos SA to assess the seismic loss (direct and business interruption) for a major energy facility, the Aluminium of Greece. The production plant erected in the mid 60s is located on the north coast of the Gulf of Corinth, having an annual production capacity that exceeds 190,000 tons of aluminium and 860,000 tons of alumina. The study considered high-impact low-probability events (with recurrence period T=2000 years), as well as events of higher probability (T= 200-500 years). Highlights of the assignment include the: development of earthquake scenarios, vulnerability assessments of highly-complex structures in due consideration of the aging of the construction materials; modelling the interaction/interdependencies of various components/ processes of the plant using state-of-the-art agent-based models. The study also proposed intervention options considering both technical and non-technical parameters, that minimize potential expenditure and maximize the resilience of the plant.