In a world juggling financial crisis and climate peril to meet the infrastructure investment gap, cat models are cornerstone for all sorts of infrastructure decisions. Simulating threats and exposure, assessing vulnerabilities and measuring losses, can guide resiliency planning of investors and operators and help insurers and underwriters price insurance coverage.

Our expertise

We champion a highly specialized approach – bolstered by mechanics and advanced analytics – for assessing damages and losses of infrastructure systems. Depending on the scale of analysis, we can either focus on the performance of a single asset and its components, or we can work at a system-level to identify network fragilities and estimate business disruption.

Catastrophe is unpredictable

When modelling catastrophe, uncertainty is everywhere.  Our models are built on probabilistic frameworks to help decision making for low-probability events.

Physics-based modelling

We use physics-based modelling to associate structural performance with damage, and damage with physical loss and downtime. This brings science to the art of underwriting, allowing the simulation of highly complex systems for which data are scarce and loss-ratios are conservatively high.

BI losses for damage-driven events

For major disruptive events, business interruption losses can account for a significant proportion of total loss. Our experts exploit agent-based models and network/traffic analyses to translate physical loss to indirect loss and loss of revenue, and monitor the recovery path of infrastructure systems.

BI losses stemming from external risks

Modelling of infrastructure losses is not agnostic to the broader socio-economic environment in which the infrastructure operates. Disruption of auxiliary networks, production, utility service interruption, or limited inaccessibility of users may produce loss of revenue even when the infrastructure itself remains intact.

What we offer

Insurance premiums

We help our clients establish or re-negotiate their insurance premiums and deductibles by conducting sophisticated PML studies for major infrastructure systems (e.g. energy facilities, transportation systems).

Direct and indirect losses

We estimate annualized losses or losses from any single event (frequent or rare). Our loss estimates can account for internal risks -causing physical damage and/ or downtime for inspection or repairs –  or loss of income caused by transition risks or impacts to interconnected facilities or eco-systems.

Risk-sharing

We provide technical input in risk sharing agreements when negotiating compensation and relief events for infrastructure contracts.

Climate KPIs

We can design climate-linked KPIs for infrastructure assets to help our clients integrate climate resiliency goals into contract monitoring mechanisms.

Relevant projects

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Road Transportation

    Probable maximum loss assessment for Attiki Odos highway

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Road Transportation

    Enhancing climate resilience in urban mobility in Matola

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Road Transportation

    Decision Support System for Increasing the Resilience of Transportation Infrastructure

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Road Transportation

    Development of a Support Platform for Engineering Decisions: Application to Highways

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Energy & Renewables

    Physical Risk Assessment for Protergia Plant

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Energy & Renewables

    Probable Maximum Loss of an industrial plant in case of an earthquake

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  • Climate and Natural Disasters Risk
    Insurance

    Design and implementation of a parametric insurance cover to mitigate earthquake risk of infrastructure systems

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