The global infrastructure protection gap is widening. In 2023, natural disasters caused $280 billion in economic losses, marking a 25% surge from the 10-year average. Only 32% were covered by insurance. In the US, federal funds for bridge rehabilitation severely lag behind the estimated repair requirements, while escalating climate hazards exacerbate the vulnerable socio-economic landscapes of emerging markets and developing economies driving millions into poverty.
South Asian economies lose over 1% of their GDP annually due to climate hazard-induced disruptions. This figure is expected to rise dramatically, reaching up to 8.8 percent by 2100. The transport sector is one of the most severely affected and vulnerable sectors impacted primarily by floods, associated landslides, and earthquakes.
As part of an assignment by the World Bank, we have carried out a thorough analysis of the road networks in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, in collaboration with local government stakeholders. The results have been used to inform governments on the exposure of their transport networks to natural hazards, the associated impacts and losses, and where to invest and what funds are needed to yield positive returns. Local stakeholders have used these results to inform country CCDR reports, the World Bank Group’s core diagnostic that integrates climate change and infrastructure development to help countries prioritize impactful adaptation resilience actions.
We are grateful for a partnership with JBA Consulting, which was established for the purpose of this assignment to allow us access to JBA’s global flood maps, providing high-resolution estimates of flood extents and depths for multiple return periods. This enabled a comprehensive assessment of flood hazard, covering both river and surface water flooding, as well as coastal flooding, across the spectrum of likely, frequent to rare, floods.
The analysis was carried out using our in-house tool INFRARRED, which combines 1. Automatic network generation; 2. Dynamic traffic analysis; 3. Probabilistic hazard mapping; 4. Comprehensive prediction of impacts, covering physical damage and operational loss; 5. Assessment of direct and indirect economic loss, and 6. Cost-benefit analysis of alternative solutions.
See more details about the methodology and key results of our analysis for Sri Lanka and Pakistan: INFARRED flyer.
