Catastrophe Modelling

When modelling catastrophe, uncertainty is everywhere.  Our models are built on probabilistic frameworks to help decision making for low-probability events.

We use physics-based modelling to associate structural performance with damage, and damage with physical loss and downtime. This brings science to the art of underwriting, allowing the simulation of highly complex systems for which data are scarce and loss-ratios are conservatively high.

For major disruptive events, business interruption losses can account for a significant proportion of total loss. Our experts exploit agent-based models and network/traffic analyses to translate physical loss to indirect loss and loss of revenue, and monitor the recovery path of infrastructure systems.

Modelling of infrastructure losses is not agnostic to the broader socio-economic environment in which the infrastructure operates. Disruption of auxiliary networks, production, utility service interruption, or limited inaccessibility of users may produce loss of revenue even when the infrastructure itself remains intact.